Written by: Akram Atallah

The world is eagerly awaiting November 5^th, 2024, as the U.S. elections approach in Washington, the capital of the world’s most powerful and influential country in international decision-making. American power extends its influence to capitals across the globe—not only through military power but also through its control, by virtue of that power, over major international institutions it established on its soil after World War II.

The American elections take place every four years on the Tuesday following the first Monday in November. This timing traces back to 18th-century agricultural America and the logistical challenges of the time. Ballot boxes, transported on horseback from various states, took weeks to reach Washington, DC, leading to January 20^th becoming the official day for announcing and inaugurating the newly elected president.

With advancements in transportation and communication, election results are now revealed on Election Day, letting America—and the world—know who its next president will be. The world quickly turns to analyze the president-elect’s policies and their impact on global events, as Washington's voice resonates across all capitals.

For the past three decades—and perhaps longer—Palestinians have shown greater interest in these elections than many in the U.S. This is because Palestinian fate has, in the last third of a century, hinged largely on American direction, vision, and decisions. The United States has monopolized the negotiations from the start and remains the primary sponsor and financier of the occupying state—and the only country capable of ending the occupation. Consequently, both official and popular Palestinian circles closely analyze each election cycle and its potential repercussions.

Palestinians feel their fate is largely determined by the U.S. president and his/her agenda, even though neither party has offered tangible solutions. Yet, the Republican Party's strong alliance with Israeli interests has led many Palestinians to consistently support the Democratic candidate. The Palestinian memory associates the Republican era with events like the death of their historic leader, Yasser Arafat, under what many believe was tacit approval; the relocation of the American embassy to occupied Jerusalem; and the introduction of the “Deal of the Century,” perceived as an attempt to eliminate the Palestinian cause. Meanwhile, Democrats continue to support the two-state solution.

Americans are accustomed to presidents running for two terms, and traditionally, they grant incumbents an easy chance for re-election. This time, however, Democrats faced challenges with their president who has shown clear signs of memory loss. Consequently, in the race's final weeks, they were compelled to replace him hastily with Vice President Kamala Harris. She now faces a well-known candidate with a well-known opponent who has a dedicated electoral base and a party more unified than the Democrats.

Recently, the gap between the candidates has narrowed significantly, shifting from a five-point lead for Harris to nearly a tie. Trump is even ahead in some crucial states, and Jill Stein's candidacy may further complicate Harris's position as the Democratic Party's nominee. The party's authority and its chances for a second term are at risk, with some observers viewing a Trump victory as a realistic scenario, despite Harris's strength in certain states.

There is a possibility that the announcement of the president may be delayed for several days due to Trump’s previous request to amend the sorting method, which may require additional time. However, this will not alter the underlying scenarios. Ultimately, we face two candidates, each with distinct visions regarding the Palestinians. While Palestinians hope for a Harris victory, they anticipate facing setbacks from the American deficit in either case.

President Trump represents a significant setback for the Palestinian cause due to his unwavering support for Israeli policies. This reality raises serious concerns for Palestinians. However, a Harris victory does not inspire much hope either, as a group of occupation supporters controls the deep state within the Democratic Party, despite Harris's apparent sympathy for Palestinians. Significant changes are not anticipated, and a key question remains about the war in Gaza: will it cease if either candidate is elected? Most likely, Israel will continue to impose its vision by persisting with the war and persuading both parties of the necessity to eliminate Hamas, which justifies the ongoing aggression.

The Palestinian community is attempting to leverage the electoral phenomenon by submitting demands to Harris's campaign, including recognition of the Palestinian state, which were rejected. Conversely, they perceive some possibility for change following statements from Trump, suggesting a new version of his policies that may be less reckless than before.

The Palestinian political system, which often finds itself waiting for a new president after the outgoing administration's rejection, must now shift from this passive state to greater action within American politics. The community has demonstrated its influence during this war, which could threaten the vice president's position, seen as complicit in the aggression. This creates an opportunity to invest more in efforts as a Palestinian Arab lobby capable of changing or at least influencing policies to some extent.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author's views and not necessarily the Association's or donor's opinion.