Written by: Khaldoun Al-Barghouthi
There were only a few days left until the “change bloc” announced the formation of a new government that would end twelve years of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s rule over Israel. That was until the settlers began marches and repression was carried out by the occupying forces at the Damascus Gate in occupied Jerusalem. The issuance of an Israeli court ruling is approaching, which may lead to the expulsion of entire Palestinian families from their homes in the Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood. All this creates a severe state of tension in occupied Jerusalem and across the occupied Palestinian territories.
Most of the leaders of the Israeli security services viewed the tension from a professional point of view. They warned the political level on the consequences of this tension, especially since the “flag march” was scheduled for 10th of May 2021. Despite the warnings, the Chief of the Israeli police insisted on allowing the march to pass through the Damascus Gate and the Muslim Quarter in the Old City of Jerusalem and assured that protection would be provided for those who participated.
Two weeks before this march, Israeli officials, such as the Chief of Staff, Aviv Kochavi, warned against the entry of Palestinian factions into the course of events in Jerusalem, especially in the Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood, because this means “rebuilding the emotional link between Gaza and Jerusalem.” This results in the failure of the decades-old efforts made by Israel to strengthen the emotional and moral barriers between the components of Palestinian society, first between the Palestinians in the lands of 1948 and between the Palestinians in the lands of 1967, in addition to its attempts to separate Jerusalem from all these contexts along with the separation between the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Regarding the political level, Israel hesitated in responding to the security warnings, and decided to change the course of the “flag march” prior to the escalation, in which rockets fired from Gaza fell in the vicinity of Jerusalem. Netanyahu, known for his political shrewdness, found in this escalation an opportunity, that may be the last for him, to remain in power and perhaps to survive his political life and personal fate. According to estimates, if the escalation had not occurred, then perhaps Netanyahu would have been out of office, facing the consequences of corruption that he is accused of, for which he is currently being tried.
The leader of the Yamina party, Naftali Bennett, also provided the Netanyahu with the golden opportunity that he was looking for, announcing that the formation of the “government for change” was no longer on his agenda, and the Likud party immediately welcomed this step. Although Israel is in a state of military confrontation, Netanyahu did not delay sending his delegates to negotiate with Bennett to include him in a right-wing government, which would ensure that Netanyahu would remain in power. Until Tuesday morning, 18th of May 2021, the Hebrew media, such as Maariv newspaper, were discussing the continuation of negotiations between Netanyahu and Bennett through their representatives. At the same time, Channel 12, a Hebrew television channel, revealed that Netanyahu also offered the leader of the Blue and White party, Benny Gantz, to join the new government. However, the latter is reluctant to reach an agreement on this matter with Netanyahu before the deadline for assigning the leader of the There is a Future party, Yair Lapid, to form the government expires, for fear of accusing him – i.e., Gantz – of betraying the “change bloc.”
Meanwhile, and despite international mediation and the pressure exerted on Netanyahu to end the aggression on Gaza, he insists on continuing with it, in which it has been a lever for him to remain in power. This means that the occupying forces are unable to assassinate senior leaders at the political and military levels of Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip, and is also unable to eliminate the military capabilities of both of them. This will be considered as a repetition of the war experiences in 2012 and 2014, which were considered a defeat for Israel because it failed to eliminate the political parties on the one hand, and failed to achieve any of its objectives during the two wars. The political parties also returned stronger than they were before those wars occurred. Therefore, Netanyahu seeks to continue the confrontation as long as possible, first to look for a military achievement that will be promoted, and secondly, to block the possibility of Yair Lapid’s resumption of his efforts to form a “government for change” by renewing communication with Naftali Bennett, who might change his current position on Netanyahu if the latter comes out of the war “defeated” by failing to achieve any of his goals.
It is not clear whether Netanyahu expected the escalation in its current form, but it is clear that he decided to embark on a gamble through this escalation. He will either remain in power by committing more crimes against civilians and civilian objects in Gaza in search of a “victory” that he will use in his propaganda in the elections that will likely take place, in light of the decline in the possibility of forming an alternative government, or he will fail in Gaza again, so that his reluctant partners, namely Bennett and Gantz, once again abandon him. As a result, he will face his fate in front of the voters and before the judiciary while being in his worst political state.
