Written by: Hassan Mahareeq

Observers of European policies towards Palestine note a clear change in priorities, due to the Ukrainian-Russian war and the geopolitical changes that accompanied it. This was evident during the visit of the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, on the 14^th of this month to Palestine. Her visit included meetings with the Prime Minister and a tour, accompanied by the representative of the European Union to Palestine.

During the meeting with Prime Minister Dr. Mohammad Shtayyeh, Ms. Ursula talked about many issues that had motivated such a visit and stressed that the European Union (EU) is the largest supporter of the Palestinian National Authority's treasury. The European Union has distributed aid worth 240 million euros after a hiatus of more than two years, as a result of the attempt of some EU countries to amend the Palestinian educational curricula, most notably Hungary. She also addressed the impact of the Ukrainian crisis, especially since Palestine is one of the importers of Ukrainian grain, which threatens the food security of poor countries, including Palestine. One of the other issues that were discussed was the strengthening of relations with Middle Eastern countries to have an alternative source of gas instead of Russian gas, something that the Palestinian government has nothing to do with.

It is clear that the European Union's support and belief in the two-state solution to end the Israeli occupation is at the bottom of the list of the Union’s priorities, as a result of the geopolitical changes in the occupied Palestinian territory due to settlement expansion and the changes that are being imposed on the region because of the power struggle between Israel in alliance with neighboring countries and the Gulf.

The European Union’s visit came at a time in which they are encountering a number of challenges concerning its internal affairs, especially the strengthening of its security and sovereignty of its members, along with the consequences of Russia’s threat to the EU and its expansionist ambitions towards the European continent. The EU actively sought to stop this expansion by strengthening the presence of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and intensifying its military presence along the borders of the Union countries to confront Russian threats; in addition to the attempt to include both Ukraine and Moldova as member states of the Union by accelerating the process of accession and easing the severity of the economic conditions and the reform steps of the government administrative apparatus.

The EU is trying to compete with time to take the necessary precautions that may alleviate the impact of the Ukrainian crisis and its consequences, the most important of which is the issue of gas and the Union's ability to dispense with Russian gas entirely by searching for alternative and possible sources of energy. The dependence of some member states reaches 100%, such as Finland, and 70%, such as Germany, the Baltic states, Italy and other countries that are considered pivotal within the Union.

Changing positions towards Middle Eastern issues, especially the Palestinian cause, is inevitable, as bartering the position of the European Union towards Palestine will serve as a lifeline for the Union due to the challenge of energy resources, especially the Mediterranean gas, as Israel is considered the partner and main and pivotal driver of a bloc that includes Egypt and Greece. The recent Israeli-Turkish rapprochement aims to extract gas from the Mediterranean fields, especially in light of the high European demand as a market thirsty for gas. Thus, the consequences of the energy shortage in the European continent can be rectified, reducing the complete dependence on Russian gas.

The issue of the foreign policy of the European Union and the Ukrainian crisis has again set a number of priorities, the most important of which are securing gas resources, empowering the European Union’s environment, trying to stop the military or political influence of the Russians in the European continent, especially southern Europe and the Balkan countries, and unifying its orientations and positions towards the Russian crisis by securing the Union’s ability to continue to pass successive sanctions against Russia.

As a result, several affairs of the European Union will decline, the first of which is human rights violations that played a role in directing the Union’s policy towards other countries around the world. This is followed by immigration issues, which in return will be exploited by member states against immigration policies to expel more immigrants and adopt closed border policies for non-European immigrants. Then comes the Palestinian issue that will be dealt with through the continuation of European support to preserve the ability of Palestinian institutions to perform their functions. The Union will not initiate any political project or mediation between the Israeli-Palestinian parties until the pace of events and challenges in the Union decrease.

The wars and geopolitical changes that accompany them, and the emergence of threats to the national security of the member states of the European Union, make the issues of human rights and their protection a secondary matter, and with it is the Palestinian cause. Therefore, Palestinian politicians must also change their attitudes based on the variations that afflict global politics, and evaluate alternatives that enable them to preserve their national project as a political project and not only a humanitarian issue.

The opinions expressed in this article are the views of the author and not necessarily the opinion of the Association or donor.